57A102
Seasonal ice zone observing network (SIZONet): integrating
input from local indigenous ice experts, a coastal ice observatory and
measurements of ice decay into a forecast of coastal ice break-up
Chris Petrich, Hajo Eicken, Mette Kaufman, Don Perovich
Corresponding author: Chris Petrich –
chris.petrich@gi.alaska.edu
The seasonal ice zone observing network (SIZONet,
www.sizonet.org) collects data of use both to the scientific community and key
stakeholders. We are presenting an example from the SIZONet observatory site at
Barrow on how these two information needs may overlap in a coastal Alaska
setting. Decay and break-up of coastal sea ice is a key event in the seasonal
cycle, of importance to a range of physical and biological processes. It also
controls the access to and from the coast by boat, important for subsistence
hunters and industry in coastal Alaska. Ice observations by local Iñupiaq
ice experts and informal interviews with other knowledgeable ice users helped
define the key stages of break-up. They also helped identify the aspects of
break-up important to ice users, namely the point at which boats can be launched
through any potentially remaining grounded ice ridges. Examination of ice
observatory data (coastal radar and webcam, www.gi.alaska.edu/BRWICE) and
satellite imagery, in conjunction with observations by local experts, helped
chart the progress of ice decay and break-up during the past decade. Key stages
in ice decay were identified (onset of melt, appearance of melt ponds, meltout
of level ice, potential ungrounding and dynamic removal of ice, removal of
remaining grounded ridges) and examined in relation to key environmental
variables and driving forces. Examination of surface albedo data showed that
onset of pond formation is the key event that starts ice decay and occurs mostly
around the same date (5 June) at Barrow. Based on this analysis a semi-empirical
approach for forecasting ice break-up was developed that relies on the
cumulative and average downwelling shortwave flux to chart the progress of ice
decay. At a certain point of ice decay, dynamic events (rapid changes in sea
level followed by offshore flow) can help speed up ice removal. This model
provided insight into the progression of different melt season
‘types’, such as the sunny and light ice season years of 2004 and
2007 with unusually early break-up mid/late June. For 2009, as part of the
sea-ice outlook (www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook) we forced this model with
14 day forecasts from the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (courtesy
of Jing Zhang and Jeremy Krieger at UAF) and were able to obtain remarkably good
and consistent forecasts for the break-up date (within ±2 days of the
observed event). Considering the challenges facing 14 day weather forecasts, it
remains to be explored whether this is mere coincidence or indicative of
predictive capability. However, as a means to tracking decay stage (e.g. through
a decay index that allows ice users to assess how many days are likely to pass
until break-up) this approach may be of use.
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