57A179
Persistence of Arctic sea ice in a GCM and observations
Edward Blanchard, Cecilia Bitz, Kyle Armour, Eric
DeWeaver
Corresponding author: Edward Blanchard –
ed@atmos.washington.edu
We have analysed the temporal characteristics of Arctic
sea-ice extent and area in terms of its lagged correlation (an indicator for
memory and variance) at monthly/seasonal timescales both in observations and a
general circulation model (GCM) ensemble. We find that both observations and
model generally match and exhibit a red noise spectrum in which significant
memory is lost within 2–5 months. Beyond this time there is an increase in
correlation, known as a re-emergence of memory, which is more ubiquitous in the
model than observations. There are two distinct cycles of re-emergence in the
model, one driven by sea-ice coverage–thickness coupling and the other by
sea-ice coverage–SST coupling. The former shows up spanning 1 year as a
summer-to-summer persistence, which is absent in observations. The source in the
model is persistence of sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic and its
influence on summer ice areal coverage. The second cycle of re-emergence results
from correlation between pairs of months that share a similar mean sea-ice
coverage, from months in the melt half of the season to months in the growth
half of the seasonal cycle of sea-ice coverage, and is strongest during the late
summer. The mechanism for this seasonal memory is via anomalous SSTs that
persists at the location of the original sea-ice anomaly during the melt season
and then alters the rate of sea-ice growth when the ice returns to the region.
This behavior is also seen in observations. These patterns of memory
re-emergence reflect on the seasonal cycle of the 1 month lagged correlation
throughout the year, with low values in spring and autumn and high values during
summer and winter. September sea-ice extent is significantly correlated with the
previous August and July (and thus these months show a predictive skill of
summer minimum), yet uncorrelated with months from November to June. Only
limited predictive skill of September sea-ice coverage is gained from thickness
anomalies during the winter in the model. We also show that memory re-emergence
is enhanced by the sea-ice-albedo feedback.
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