57A206
The accelerating decline of Arctic sea ice
Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Andy Barrett, Walt Meier
Corresponding author: Julienne Stroeve –
stroeve@kryos.colorado.edu
The sequence of extreme September sea-ice extent minima
observed since 2002 suggests acceleration in the response of the Arctic sea-ice
cover to external forcing, hastening the transition towards a seasonally open
Arctic Ocean. This acceleration results from several mutually supporting
processes. Because of the extensive open water in recent Septembers, ice cover
in the following spring is increasingly dominated by thin first-year ice (ice
formed during the previous autumn and winter) that is vulnerable to melting out
in summer. Thinner ice in spring in turn fosters a stronger summer ice-albedo
feedback through earlier formation of open-water areas. A thin ice cover is also
more vulnerable to strong summer retreat under anomalous atmospheric forcing.
Finally, general warming of the Arctic has reduced the likelihood of cold years
that could bring about temporary recovery of the ice cover. This talk summarizes
these linked processes through analysis of satellite-derived sea-ice extent, ice
concentration and ice age, and atmospheric conditions from atmospheric
reanalyses and satellite observations. Events leading to the recent extreme
September ice-extent minima exemplify these processes.
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